Crestline Soaring Society

Weak Santa Anas (NWS is saying north 5-10 MPH in San Bernardino) generally mean that it might well be 'blowing down everywhere', which is to say that it will be launchable at Elsinore early, but not necessarily ridge-soarable, and the seabreeze will push in and over mid-day as usual. One could catch the convergence and get high; distance is questionable, as the convergence could/would move slowly and who has the patience?

Crestline could blow down all day, but the thermal convection plus seabreeze might overcome the north wind enough that Marshall Peak or one of the lower launches becomes flyable in the afternoon, as it did today (see http://www.crestlinesoaring.org/forum/20080321/1260).

Good Flying,
Ken Howells

The graphical surface wind forecast shows it basically calm today at Elsinore, until the seabreeze takes over. Your best hope on that is a convergence, but I wouldn't bet on it.

The Skew T graphs for the NOAA, especially the Rapid Update Cyle (the one that only shows 12 hours) shows a great day. It says wins from about 20 degrees in the mid teens and thermal tops to 800 milibars (5K or so).

However, that source says that it should be low teens and north as I type, but the El Cariso station says South and almost as strong. Problem is, El Cariso is back it the hills a bit.

So, I say 40-60 chance of being a great day and 50 of the 60 would be flyable.

I will likely be out there with pipsqueek (Though, she will be staying in the car when we drop by the LZ and I will not be loitering there) to drive peeps up, but that will probably be around 10 AM. Elsinore is easy to get retrieves at.

PAPERWORK. Please read the second post (by me, KnumbKnuts) on this thread on how to do the Elsinore paperwork:
http://www.hanggliding.org/viewtopic.php?t=4832

If you haven't done the paperwork, you are not landing in the oak tree LZ today. It takes about a week to get it turned around.

Hope to see some peeps out there.

EDIT:
The raws stations other than El Cariso in the area show NE currently, so it probably is blowing in at Elsinore

The skew-t graphs show the thermal tops lifting until 9K at 1 PM HA.

i am leaving for elsinore in a few minutes from the coachella valley. we will have a driver and even though most of our group have the oak tree lz waiver paper work in place one in our group today doesent so we will use the lz in town just above and to the north of the small market by the lake. right below the e launch. so if you need a ride up and where there your in. there is a few power lines and a fence. this is not really a lz just somewhere to land. be nice to the locals and avoid livestock and peoples privacy ect. we will stop by the oak tree lz briefly if anyone needs a ride up.
scotty
760-808-4823

thanks for your answers guys!

j